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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32252/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the N/NE in STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the instrument pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. The source may be the M2.0 flare from AR 3762, with dimming visible starting at 2024-07-27T10:34Z in GOES SUVI 284. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUV 195. A filament liftoff is visible on the NW limb in GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2024-07-27T09:44Z, however based on the location of this CME from the point of view of STEREO A, this is not a likely source candidate for the CME. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and up to three following CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32254/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-27T11:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=31.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T18:00Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-31T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T20:32Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_180000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 87.00 hour(s)
Difference: 9.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-27T22:46Z

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